Planning fallacy
Beware of the planning fallacy when you are planning something.
Our predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and we underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of our knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned. The planning fallacy involves estimates of task completion times more optimistic than those encountered in similar projects in the past. The bias affects predictions only about one’s own tasks. On the other hand, when outside observers predict task completion times, they tend to exhibit a pessimistic bias, overestimating the time needed.
What is wrong with us? Why is there such a gap between intention and behavior?
Two types of thinking - one being an inside approach and the other being an outside approach. The inside approach involves really focusing on the case at hand. And trying to work out the details of that unique case. Its like you are developing a mental scenario or a mental simulation of how you think that project will unfold. But the problem is that, mental simulations often don’t provide the thorough and comprehensive representation of how things will go. They tend to be idealized, over-simplified. When people get into that frame of thought, they don’t entertain alternative ways in which things may go. They kind of get locked into one scenario. Also, couple that with people’s wishes and desires. Generally, when you are planning something out, you are planning to succeed; you are not planning to fail. So, optimism bias is one of the reasons for this.